Viendo archivo del lunes, 31 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 152 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 618 (S10W83)
produced 5 C-class flares, including a C6.5/Sf at 31/0028 UTC. No
significant development was observed from any of the regions on the
visible disk, and no new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 618 may still produce C-class flares before
disappearing tomorrow behind the west limb. Region 621 (S15E38) is
capable of C-class flares as well.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. Solar wind speed has
slowly increased over the past four days from 350 km/s to about 500
km/s, indicating the possible beginning effects of a coronal hole
high speed solar wind stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for all three days (1-3 June),
with isolated minor storm conditions on 1 and 2 June from the
effects of the geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 May 095 Previsto 01 Jun-03 Jun 100/090/090 Media de 90 Días 31 May 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 May 011/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 May 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 015/015-015/015-012/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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