Viendo archivo del lunes, 16 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 047 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 556 (N15W54) produced a
single C-class flare, a C1/Sf at 16/0258Z. Region 554 (S08W43)
continues its gradual decay phase. The remaining regions are small
and simple, and show very little potential for flare activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a slight chance for an isolated low C-class flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The high speed coronal
hole stream that produced the minor disturbance over the past
several days has declined considerably. Solar wind speed peaked
yesterday near 800 km/s, but gradually decreased to 500 km/s by the
end of the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again this period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three
days. Isolated active periods at high latitudes are possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Feb 099 Previsto 17 Feb-19 Feb 100/100/095 Media de 90 Días 16 Feb 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 013/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Feb 010/011 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Feb-19 Feb 010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Feb a 19 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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