Viendo archivo del martes, 27 enero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 27 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 027 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jan 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Only a few, low-level,
B-class flares were observed. The solar disk is currently devoid of
sunspots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There may be a gradual increase in background and activity
levels with the return of old Region 536 (latitude S11) tomorrow (28
January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active
period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind signatures indicate the
crossing of a solar sector boundary, with magnetic polarity
switching from a towards (negative) orientation to an away
(positive) configuration between 0500-1300 UTC. The greater than 2
MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (28
January) as a positive polarity coronal hole is rotating into
geoeffective position. A decline to mostly unsettled with possible
isolated active periods is expected for the second and third days
(29-30 January).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jan a 30 Jan
| Clase M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 27 Jan 094 Previsto 28 Jan-30 Jan 100/100/110 Media de 90 Días 27 Jan 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jan 009/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 27 Jan 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan 015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jan a 30 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 05% |
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