Viendo archivo del jueves, 11 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 11 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 345 Publicado el 2200Z a las 11 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 10-2100Z hasta 11-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Only B-class flares
have occurred. No significant development was observed from the
active regions on the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 10-2100Z a 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to major storm conditions.
Solar wind speed remains steady at around 800 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Activity in the geomagnetic
field should decrease over the next few days as the coronal hole
causing this elevated activity rotates out of geoeffective position.
Active to minor storm conditions are expected on 12-13 December,
with isolated major storming possible. Unsettled to active
conditions are expected on 14 December, with isolated minor storming
possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 12 Dec a 14 Dec
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 11 Dec 086 Previsto 12 Dec-14 Dec 085/090/090 Media de 90 Días 11 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 10 Dec 024/042 Estimado Afr/Ap 11 Dec 030/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec 025/040-020/035-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 12 Dec a 14 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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