Viendo archivo de lunes, 17 noviembre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Nov 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 321 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 Nov 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 501 (N04E22) has generated two M-class flares, an M1 x-ray event at 17/0134Z, and an M4/1n event at 17/0905Z. The second event was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep and a coronal mass ejection measured form the LASCO coronagraph with an estimated speed of 1085 km/s. This region underwent little change over the period and retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure. Region 505 (S22E58) was newly numbered to day.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. Region 501 will continue to harbor a threat for M-class activity. Old active Regions 486 and 488 will be returning late in the period, and pose an increased threat for M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at active to minor storm levels. The favorably positioned coronal hole continued to cause high solar wind speeds, and the accompanying southward Bz of the interplanetary magnetic field, have kept the geomagnetic field activity at elevated levels throughout the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels for the next two days. The coronal hole will pass from geoeffective position, and the solar wind speeds should subside. On day three (possibly late on day two) a glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection that occurred on 17 Nov at 0917Z is anticipated, elevating activity to periods of minor storm levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 Nov a 20 Nov
Clase M50%55%55%
Clase X05%10%10%
Protón05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 Nov 121
  Previsto   18 Nov-20 Nov  135/155/165
  Media de 90 Días        17 Nov 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 16 Nov  032/035
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 17 Nov  028/037
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  012/020-010/010-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 Nov a 20 Nov
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%35%35%
Tormenta Menor10%10%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%40%45%
Tormenta Menor40%20%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%10%

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