Viendo archivo de viernes, 24 octubre 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 24 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 297 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Oct 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 486 (S16E57) produced several flares, including a M7.6/1n at 24/0254 UTC, with an associated Type IV radio sweep. An associated CME was observed on SOHO/LASCO imagery with an estimated velocity of 900 km/s, although the CME did not appear to be earth-directed. Region 484 (N05W15) produced an M1.3 at 24/1856 UTC. Region 484 appears to be decaying slightly, while Region 486 is growing. Both regions continue to exhibit large, complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configurations. The F10 value is flare enhanced and is estimated due to solar activity at the time of the measurement.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 484 and 486 are expected to produce major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to severe storm levels. An interplanetary shock was observed at ACE at 24/1450 UTC, with a subsequent sudden impulse observed at 1530 UTC. The sudden impulse was followed by about two hours of severe geomagnetic storm activity, and produced a magnetopause crossing at GOES 12. Solar wind data show high density flow with strong magnetic fields (about 30 nT), although so far Bz has been strongly northwards. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to severe storm conditions for day one, due to persistence from the current transient-driven activity. Activity should subside to unsettled to minor storm levels on days two and three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Oct a 27 Oct
Clase M90%90%90%
Clase X45%45%45%
Protón15%20%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       24 Oct 191
  Previsto   25 Oct-27 Oct  190/195/200
  Media de 90 Días        24 Oct 117
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 23 Oct  005/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 24 Oct  035/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  035/040-030/040-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Oct a 27 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%40%40%
Tormenta Menor40%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa30%20%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor40%40%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa40%40%30%

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