Viendo archivo del viernes, 26 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 269 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W07)
continues to grow and produce a series of low-level flare activity.
The disappearing solar filament which occurred yesterday at 0534 UTC
is apparently not Earth-directed, and should not impact as
previously expected.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. Region 464 does harbor a slight chance for isolated M-class
flare activity, and an even slighter chance for an X-class event.
By the end of the day, it will reach a position which makes it a
very slight threat to produce an energetic proton event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
coronal hole, which has induced a high-speed solar wind stream for
the last few days, is in its final stages, but continues to impact
the Earth's magnetic field. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the remainder
of today and into tomorrow. Then it is expected to drop off to
quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active for later in
day two and into day three. The high-speed stream currently
impacting the Earth's magnetic field will continue to wane, but
still poses a threat to spike for a short period during day two.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Sep a 29 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Sep 131 Previsto 27 Sep-29 Sep 130/130/125 Media de 90 Días 26 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Sep 016/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Sep 020/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep 020/030-015/020-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Sep a 29 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 20% | 10% |
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