Viendo archivo del martes, 16 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 259 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Frequent small x-ray
events occurred, but none exceeded the C2 level reached at 0218 UTC.
Two new regions were born on the disk. Regions 461 (N12W38) and 462
(S09W30) are both nascent C-class sunspot groups with small plage
fields.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from unsettled to major storm
conditions. A slow CME passed ACE late yesterday, bringing lengthy
periods of southward IMF. The solar wind radial speed did not exceed
475 km/s. This elongated transient is still being seen at L1,
causing minor to major storming as a result. The solar source of
this CME is not well known.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next three
days. A high speed solar wind stream is due September 18, and likely
to further prolong the storming now occurring.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 Sep a 19 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 Sep 099 Previsto 17 Sep-19 Sep 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 16 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 15 Sep 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 16 Sep 025/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 020/035-025/035-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 Sep a 19 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 55% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 55% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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