Viendo archivo del martes, 1 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 182 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of a few, low-level C-class flares from
Region 397 (N10E26). This region is no longer growing and may even
be showing a slight decaying trend. Nonetheless the group remains
the largest on disk at 770 millionths and consists of highly mixed
magnetic polarities including a small delta spot near the trailing
part of the region. New Region 400 (N05E69) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a chance for an isolated
M-class event from Region 397 during the next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, but there was an
active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind speed showed steady
decline during the past 24 hours from initial values around 750 km/s
to day end values around 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes were high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled with occasional active periods for
the next two days. An increase to active is expected on the third
day in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jul 131 Previsto 02 Jul-04 Jul 130/135/135 Media de 90 Días 01 Jul 123
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Jun 014/020 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jul 013/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jul-04 Jul 010/015-010/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jul a 04 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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