Viendo archivo del jueves, 26 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 177 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity remained low. The day's largest event
was a C2/EPL from N13E90 at 1919 UTC. This eruption was from an
active region soon to appear on east limb. Visible in x-ray imagery,
it is most likely the return of old region 375, the site of M and X
class activity last rotation. Elsewhere, two new regions were
numbered: Region 394 (N08E22) and Region 395 (N10E62).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Watch the northeast limb for an active center to arrive very soon.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Solar wind radial
speed increased around midday, from 500 to 650 km/s. A large coronal
hole is now rotating into a geoeffective location. The greater than
2 MeV geosynchronous electron flux was high.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at generally active levels for the next three days,
punctuated by episodes of minor storm conditions. Effects of the
high speed solar wind should persist through the interval.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Jun a 29 Jun
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Jun 119 Previsto 27 Jun-29 Jun 125/130/130 Media de 90 Días 26 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Jun 014/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Jun 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Jun-29 Jun 015/020-020/025-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Jun a 29 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 55% | 55% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
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