Viendo archivo del viernes, 20 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 171 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity increased to low levels today. Region
386 (S07E17) produced two low levels C-class flares today along with
several B-class flares. The northern portion of the penumbral field
appears to have undergone some rotation since yesterday while the
delta magnetic structure in the southern leading edge of group has
changed little during the period and remains intact. Region 387
(N18E36) was quiescent today although spot coverage and magnetic
complexity have both shown growth over the period. Region 389
(S12E14) was newly numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to range
from low to moderate levels. Region 386 remains capable of
producing an isolated major event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled levels today as
effects from the western most recurrent coronal hole wanes. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions
may exist especially at high latitudes beginning late on day two
with the return of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jun 117 Previsto 21 Jun-23 Jun 115/115/120 Media de 90 Días 20 Jun 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jun 016/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jun 010/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jun-23 Jun 010/015-012/015-012/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jun a 23 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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