Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 166 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest flare of
the day was a long duration C3 flare that originated from beyond the
southeast limb at 1457Z. Other minor C-class activity was
predominantly from Region 375 (N12, L=22) beyond the northwest limb.
Region 380 (S17W36) continues to decay in area coverage and is now
at 180 millionths. New Region 385 (N30E30) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The region beyond the southeast limb is expected to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have isolated M-class
potential. This region is likely old region 365 which was very
active during its last rotation.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The
geomagnetic field has been disturbed by a combination of high speed
flow effects and weak shocks that were observed yesterday and today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active conditions with isolated minor
storming possible early on day one. Activity on day two is expected
to be quiet to unsettled. Late on day three a coronal hole is due
to rotate into a geoeffective position with unsettled to active
conditions expected.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| Clase M | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Jun 129 Previsto 16 Jun-18 Jun 130/125/125 Media de 90 Días 15 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 018/032 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Jun 020/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Jun-18 Jun 015/015-012/015-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Jun a 18 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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