Viendo archivo del sábado, 14 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 165 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. An M1.5 flare
occurred at 0609Z on the southeast limb. Region 380 (S16W25) has
decreased in area coverage and has simplified to a beta magnetic
configuration. An eleven degree disappearing solar filament was
observed lifting off at near N27W09 at 13/2217Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. The region from beyond the southeast limb is likely to
rotate onto the visible disk on day one and have M-class potential.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. The onset
of the expected coronal hole was marked by a co-rotating interacting
region with solar wind speed increasing to near 600 km/s and a 12
hour period of minor storm levels. Late in the period indications
of a possible shock passage at the NASA/ACE spacecraft coincided
with a major storm period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated minor
storm levels are expected on day one due to high speed flow and CME
shock effects. By day two activity is expected to be at unsettled
to active levels.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| Clase M | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Clase X | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Jun 134 Previsto 15 Jun-17 Jun 135/135/130 Media de 90 Días 14 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Jun 035/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 020/025-015/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Jun a 17 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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