Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 164 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 375 (N12W84)
produced an M2.6 at 12/2127 UTC, an M3.1 at 13/0204 UTC, an M1.7/Sf
at 13/0437 UTC, and an M1.8/Sf at 13/0645 UTC. The first two
M-class flares were optically correlated with SXI imagery. Region
375 decreased in size as it reached the west limb. Region 380
(S16W11) remains stable. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 both remain capable of
producing major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speed decreased to about 400 km/s. After 13/1700Z, solar wind
speeds increased to about 450 km/s and total interplanetary magnetic
field at L1 showed steady increase. The greater than 2 MeV electron
flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible
active conditions on day one due to elevated solar wind speeds as a
coronal hole moves into geoeffective position, and also due to
potential CMEs related to major flare and erupting filament activity
on 11 June 03.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| Clase M | 75% | 60% | 40% |
| Clase X | 30% | 20% | 10% |
| Protón | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Jun 151 Previsto 14 Jun-16 Jun 145/130/120 Media de 90 Días 13 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Jun 007/011 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Jun 007/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 015/020-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Jun a 16 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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