Viendo archivo del domingo, 1 junio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 152 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Jun 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 31-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 365 (S07W84)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 01/1652 UTC as well as a few other
smaller flares during the past day. The most active sunspot group
has been new Region 375 (N11E74) which produced three M1 flares
during the reporting period: at 01/0306 UTC, 01/0711 UTC, and
01/1250 UTC. This region is just visible at the eastern limb as a
D-type sunspot group. More of the region is expected to come into
view by tomorrow.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class activity is expected from both 365, as it
departs the visible disk, and 375 as it comes into view. There
remains a slight chance of a major flare from either region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 31-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm periods for the duration of the three-day forecast
period. A high-speed coronal hole stream is expected to influence
activity by 03 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Jun a 04 Jun
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Jun 112 Previsto 02 Jun-04 Jun 105/100/100 Media de 90 Días 01 Jun 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 31 May 018/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Jun 018/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 018/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Jun a 04 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 75% | 75% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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