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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 31 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 151 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 May 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 365 (S07W72) produced an M9/2b flare at 31/0224 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 1300 sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, and a CME observed by the SOHO spacecraft to be directed mostly towards the southwest. This region also generated a few C-class subflares during the past day. Further decay, mostly in penumbral area, is evident since yesterday.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 365 may produce yet another major flare before it passes the west solar limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The most disturbed period occurred from 31/0300-0600 UTC and has since been quiet to unsettled at most locations. A greater than 10 MeV proton event started at 31/0440 UTC, reached a 27 pfu peak at 31/0645 UTC, and ended at 31/1440 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of isolated storm conditions at local nighttime. The field may become increasingly disturbed by 03 June due to a recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jun a 03 Jun
Clase M80%50%10%
Clase X20%10%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       31 May 113
  Previsto   01 Jun-03 Jun  110/100/090
  Media de 90 Días        31 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 May  036/049
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 31 May  025/040
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun  015/025-015/015-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jun a 03 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor20%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%01%01%

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