Viendo archivo del lunes, 26 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 146 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 365
(S06W06) produce two M-class events with the largest one an M1.9/1f
at 0550Z. This region also produced a long duration C7 flare at
1744Z. LASCO C2 imagery indicates narrow CME's associated with the
two M-class events but neither one has an Earth directed component.
Region 365 continues to grow in area coverage but the rate of growth
has slowed since yesterday.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 365 is expected to produce C-class
flares and has the potential for isolated M-class events.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Residual
effects from a high speed stream produced active conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. A coronal hole
high speed stream is expected to produce minor storming on day one
and day two of the period. By day three, conditions are expected to
at quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 May a 29 May
| Clase M | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 May 125 Previsto 27 May-29 May 125/125/120 Media de 90 Días 26 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 May 014/022 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 May 018/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 May-29 May 025/030-020/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 May a 29 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 45% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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