Viendo archivo del martes, 6 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 126 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S15W71)
produced a long duration C3 event at 06/0148 UTC which was visible
in the GOES Solar x-ray imagery. Region 348 (S34W68) and 349 still
maintain a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 348 and 349 are expected to continue low
C-class flares with a slight chance for an M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm conditions.
Solar wind speeds increased throughout the past 24 hours to above
700 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was
oriented southward for extended periods. The elevated geomagnetic
activity is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storm conditions for 07 May as the
coronal hole high speed stream continues. Quiet to unsettled
conditions should return on 08 and 09 May as a transition is made
out of the high speed solar wind flow.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 May a 09 May
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 May 129 Previsto 07 May-09 May 115/115/110 Media de 90 Días 06 May 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 May 011/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 May 022/022 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 020/025-015/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 May a 09 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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