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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Apr 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 117 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Apr 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 338 (N18W85) produced an M2.5/Sf at 26/2340Z and an M1.7/Sf at 27/1532Z which were the largest flares of the period. This region was again responsible for the vast majority of the activity observed today. Proximity to the west limb hinders analysis of changes in magnetic structure today. Region 344 (N16W00) showed slight growth today and retains a beta-gamma-delta structure. The weak delta complex is evident in the northwestern quadrant of the dominant trailing spot. Region 337 (S14W40) underwent rapid growth during the period adding many additional spots to the south of the main body of this group. This region also depicts a beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure. A 34 degree solar filament erupted yesterday at approximately 26/2000Z which resulted in a streamer CME that does not appear as though it will become geoeffective No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Region 338 has begun to transit the disk but remains capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. An increase of 150 km/s in the solar wind speed during the period is believed to be the result of a recurrent coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through the interval. High latitude minor storm conditions are possible on day one and into day two due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Apr a 30 Apr
Clase M70%50%50%
Clase X15%10%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Apr 154
  Previsto   28 Apr-30 Apr  155/160/155
  Media de 90 Días        27 Apr 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Apr  009/015
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Apr  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Apr-30 Apr  015/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Apr a 30 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Tormenta Menor20%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Tormenta Menor30%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%05%

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