Viendo archivo del domingo, 23 marzo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Mar 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 082 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Mar 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours. The first was a C1 from Region 318
(S15E62) at 1214 UTC. This flare was associated with an erupting
filament and narrow CME observed on the east limb. The second was a
C1 from a new region behind east limb that was visible in Solar
X-ray images at latitude N04. New Region 319 (N15E53) was assigned
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. There was a
period of storm level activity from 0900-1200 UTC, with minor storm
levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
The activity was caused by high speed solar wind accompanied by
frequent negative and positive fluctuations of Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field (typically oscillating between +6 to -
6 nT). The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels
during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next two days, with a chance
for some isolated active periods. Activity is expected to increase
to mostly active on the third day in response to a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Mar a 26 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Mar 093 Previsto 24 Mar-26 Mar 095/100/105 Media de 90 Días 23 Mar 133
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Mar 011/016 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Mar 020/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Mar a 26 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 20% |
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