Viendo archivo del miércoles, 19 febrero 2003

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Feb 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 290 (N18E30) produced a C1.8/Sf at 19/1437 UTC. This region has shown growth in area coverage, and has formed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration in the leader spots. Region 289 (N09W66) has shown rapid growth in the last 24 hours, but has maintained a beta magnetic configuration. Activity from Region 289 consisted of bright surging along the southwest portion of the region.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight chance of isolated M-class activity from Regions 289 and 290.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The transient effects that began yesterday, and produced a structured solar wind, appear to be ending. At 19/1400 UTC, the steady decline in solar wind velocity reached a minimum near 500 km/s. Solar wind velocity has since increased to 560 km/s. Bz show signs of returning to the fluctuating signature of a high speed stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. An equatorial coronal hole has entered a geo-effective position, and is expected to produce high speed stream effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
Clase M15%15%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Feb 116
  Previsto   20 Feb-22 Feb  115/110/110
  Media de 90 Días        19 Feb 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb  017/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Feb  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb  015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%20%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%25%25%
Tormenta Menor25%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

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