Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 314 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W55)
produced an M2/2n at 10/0321 UTC. This region seems to have
simplified a little over the past 48 hours but still remains
relatively large and magnetically complex. Region 191 (S18E51)
produced a few C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 10/1136
UTC. This sunspot group is of comparable size to Region 180 but so
far does not seem to be as magnetically complex.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in both Regions 180 and 191.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
CME material noted yesterday appears to have passed. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress (start--09/1920 UTC and
404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC). The current proton flux is about 40
pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 12-24 hours. A shock
is expected to arrive by the latter half of UTC 11 November in
response to yesterday's M4/CME event. Active to storm conditions
are expected following the shock arrival. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue and proton fluxes may briefly
increase as the shock passes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 90% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Nov 191 Previsto 11 Nov-13 Nov 190/185/180 Media de 90 Días 10 Nov 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Nov 003/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Nov 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 015/018-020/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Nov a 13 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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