Viendo archivo del sábado, 20 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 201 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. An unobserved M1 event was
in progress at the very end -- 2100 UTC -- of the period, with an
associated Type II sweep. Earlier a C9/1n at 1242UTC from Region 30
(N18W63) occurred. Region 30 has showed some decay in white light
during the period. Region 36 (S07E11) developed in all observables,
growing to 980 millionths in white light and exhibiting a weak delta
in the leader spot.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 30 and 36 are good candidates for an isolated
M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. High speed
(700 - 900 km/s) solar wind fueled the activity, but no transients
were seen in the plasma data. The IMF had a very small northward
component most of the day, diminishing the impact of the high radial
speed on the magnetosphere. The small proton event at greater than
10 MeV was ended at 19/1535 UTC. The peak flux was 13 pfu at 19/1515
UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled levels throughout the interval.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| Clase M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 Jul 185 Previsto 21 Jul-23 Jul 185/185/180 Media de 90 Días 20 Jul 160
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 19 Jul 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 015/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 21 Jul-23 Jul 010/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Jul a 23 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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