Viendo archivo del jueves, 23 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 143 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9961 (S22E22) grew
slowly as it produced a few minor C-class flares. The delta
configuration is now apparent in the center of the group, as the
leading spot simplified. Region 9957 (N10W19) decayed slightly but
still retains a modest degree of magnetic complexity. Two new
regions, 9966 (N10E34) and 9967 (N13E46) emerged.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 9957 and 9961 are the most likely sites for
isolated M-class flares. There continues to be a slight chance for a
major flare event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to severe storm levels. The
first of two shocks detected today passed ACE around 1000 UTC, as
solar wind speeds increased from 400 to 600 km/s, causing a sudden
impulse of 87 nT to be registered at Boulder at 1051 UTC. At
approximately 1500 UTC, a second shock, boosting solar wind speeds
to near 1,000 km/s for a short period, was seen at ACE. This
perturbation caused a 26 nT sudden impulse at Boulder at 1545 UTC.
This activity is thought to be an effect of the multiple CMEs
observed to leave the sun yesterday. The greater than 10 MeV proton
event that began at 22/1755 UTC attained a tentative maximum of 820
pfu at 23/1055 UTC and continues in progress.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24 hours
as the current disturbance wanes. No additional shocks or CMEs are
expected. The field should continue to calm to unsettled conditions
by the end of the interval. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes
should continue to slowly decline.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 May a 26 May
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 May 180 Previsto 24 May-26 May 175/170/170 Media de 90 Días 23 May 184
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 May 010/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 May 045/050 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 025/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 May a 26 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 20% | 15% |
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