Viendo archivo del martes, 14 mayo 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 May 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 134 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 May 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was an optically uncorrelated C4.2 flare at 14/1303 UTC. Region 9945
(S04W26) has shown some modest increase in magnetic complexity and
now has a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. An optically
uncorrelated C2 flare occurred at 13/2056 UTC with an associated
Type II radio sweep. SOHO/LASCO imagery indicate a possible source
on the SW limb. An uncorrelated Type II radio sweep occurred at
14/0738 UTC as well as a Type IV radio sweep at 14/0747 UTC.
SOHO/LASCO EIT imagery indicates an event beyond the SW limb at
14/0736 UTC as a probable source.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9945 and Region 9948 have the potential for low
level M-class activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Minor
storm conditions occurred from 03 - 09 UTC. Active to unsettled
conditions occurred for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one of the forecast period, particularly at higher
latitudes.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 May a 17 May
| Clase M | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 May 161 Previsto 15 May-17 May 165/165/160 Media de 90 Días 14 May 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 May 009/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 May 025/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 May-17 May 015/020-010/010-008/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 May a 17 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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