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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 112 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Apr 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9906 (S14W103), now well beyond the west limb, produced a C7 X-ray flare at 22/0019 UTC associated with a bright surge and an eruptive prominence. Region 9912 (N10W25) produced a C2/Sf flare at 22/1210 UTC associated with a Type II radio sweep (estimated velocity 804 km/sec). Region 9912 was in a gradual growth phase. A weak magnetic delta configuration may have developed within its trailer spots. New Region 9917 (S30E45) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. There's a chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9912.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred during 22/0300 - 0600 UTC. The greater than 100 MeV proton event that began at 21/0155 UTC reached a peak of 22.9 pfu at 21/1025 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 21/0225 UTC reached a peak of 2520 pfu at 21/2320 UTC and was in progress as the period ended. Peak polar cap absorption associated with the proton event was estimated to be 16 dB (daytime) and 3.9 dB (nighttime).
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm levels on 23 April in response to yesterday's X1/partial-halo CME event. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 24 April as the disturbance winds down. Unsettled conditions are expected on the final day. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 23 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on 24 April.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Apr a 25 Apr
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón99%99%20%
PCAFin progress
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Apr 170
  Previsto   23 Apr-25 Apr  170/175/175
  Media de 90 Días        22 Apr 199
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Apr  004/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Apr  013/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr  025/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Apr a 25 Apr
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo40%40%35%
Tormenta Menor20%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor30%20%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%01%

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