Viendo archivo del domingo, 2 diciembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 02 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 336 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Dec 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to moderate levels. Region 9714 (S09W95) produced a long-duration M1 X-ray flare at 02/1500 UTC as it crossed the west limb. A post-flare loop prominence system followed this flare. Region 9715 (N04W37) produced isolated C-class subflares. It remained the most impressive region on the disk, but showed signs of gradual decay with a modest decrease in area. However, it remained magnetically complex as a magnetic delta configuration persisted within its interior spots. Region 9718 (S06E16) showed minor growth and produced isolated subflares, one of which reached C-class. Some polarity mixing persisted in the trailer portion of this region. New Region 9725 (S11W45) emerged during the period. New Region 9726 (S15E69) rotated into view today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly moderate during the period with isolated M-class flares likely. There will also be a chance for an isolated major flare during the period from Region 9715.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected. However, there will be a chance for active periods during 04 - 05 December due to coronal hole effects. There will be a slight chance for a proton flare from Region 9715.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Dec a 05 Dec
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 Dec 245
  Previsto   03 Dec-05 Dec  245/245/245
  Media de 90 Días        02 Dec 219
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 Dec  006/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 Dec  005/007
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 Dec-05 Dec  010/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Dec a 05 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%30%25%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%35%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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