Viendo archivo de sábado, 1 diciembre 2001

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 01 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 335 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Dec 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z

Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of several M-class events. The largest was an east limb long duration M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC. The presumed source is old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the east limb on 02 December. Other activity included numerous flares from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718 (S07E30). Three new regions were numbered today: 9722 (S16W19), 9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74). The latter produced an M1/Sf event at 01/1744 UTC. None of today's activity appeared to produce any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high for the next three days. Regions 9714, 9715 (N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear capable of isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field may become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29 November are anticipated. Activity is expected to be predominantly unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal hole possible late in the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Dec a 04 Dec
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X25%25%25%
Protón15%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       01 Dec 221
  Previsto   02 Dec-04 Dec  225/220/220
  Media de 90 Días        01 Dec 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 30 Nov  002/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 01 Dec  010/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  020/030-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Dec a 04 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%25%25%
Tormenta Menor25%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

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