Viendo archivo del sábado, 1 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 335 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was high, due to the occurrence of
several M-class events. The largest was an east limb long duration
M4.8 enhancement, peaking at 01/1555 UTC. The presumed source is
old Region 9690 (S17, L=025), which is expected to re-emerge on the
east limb on 02 December. Other activity included numerous flares
from Region 9714 (S10W84), some of which were accompanied by weak
M-class enhancements, and an impulsive M2/2n flare from Region 9718
(S07E30). Three new regions were numbered today: 9722 (S16W19),
9723 (S09E45), and 9724 (N09E74). The latter produced an M1/Sf
event at 01/1744 UTC. None of today's activity appeared to produce
any earth-directed CME's, and no CME-related radio sweeps were
observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high for the next three days. Regions 9714, 9715
(N05W23), 9718, and emergent regions on the east limb all appear
capable of isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field may
become active, with isolated minor storm conditions possible, within
the next 24 hours, as shock passages from CME activity of 28-29
November are anticipated. Activity is expected to be predominantly
unsettled thereafter, with some influence of a recurrent coronal
hole possible late in the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Dec 221 Previsto 02 Dec-04 Dec 225/220/220 Media de 90 Días 01 Dec 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Nov 002/003 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Dec 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec 020/030-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Dec a 04 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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