Viendo archivo del martes, 18 septiembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Sep 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Sep 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity remained at high levels due to the
number of M-class flares. Six M1-level flares were observed over the
past 24 hours, occurring in Regions 9608 (S30W84), 9616 (S13W11),
9620 (N12E44), and new Region 9628 (S17E79). Region 9608 has rotated
out of view beyond the west limb. The largest sunspot groups
currently on the disk are 9616 and 9628. New Regions 9625 (S30W12),
9626 (N25E47), and 9627 (N05E73) were also numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Additional M-class flares are possible in Regions
9616, 9620, and 9628. Another major flare in Region 9608 from beyond
the west limb is not out of the question.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active. Solar wind
information from the NASA ACE spacecraft exhibited increased
variability including higher IMF field intensity and southward Bz.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with occasional active periods.
Increased activity is possible from a number of CME events and a
possible high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Sep 204 Previsto 19 Sep-21 Sep 205/200/195 Media de 90 Días 18 Sep 165
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Sep 006/010 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Sep 008/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Sep-21 Sep 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Sep a 21 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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