Viendo archivo del jueves, 23 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 23 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 235 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. Region 9591
(S17E53) produced frequent, impulsive mid-level C-class flares with
minor radio emission. This region showed a magnetic delta structure
in its trailing sunspots and a weak delta in its interior spots.
Currently, Region 9591 spans about 30 degrees in longitude. However,
it appeared likely this region was comprised of two abutted sunspot
groups, which may be split into separate groups once this complex
rotates further into view. Minor polarity mixing was evident in
Regions 9582 (N28W33) and 9585 (N14W16), but both regions were
inactive as they showed signs of decay. The remaining active regions
were unremarkable. New Region 9593 (N00E01) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate with a good chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9591. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from
this region.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity decreased to quiet to unsettled levels as
coronal hole effects subsided.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first half of
the period increasing to unsettled to active levels during the rest
of the period. There will be a slight chance for a proton event
during the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit may reach high levels during the first half of
the forecast period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Aug a 26 Aug
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 23 Aug 170 Previsto 24 Aug-26 Aug 175/180/180 Media de 90 Días 23 Aug 152
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 22 Aug 014/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 23 Aug 009/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 010/010-012/012-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Aug a 26 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
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