Viendo archivo del martes, 23 enero 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 023 Publicado el 2200Z a las 23 Jan 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 22-2100Z hasta 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9311 (N06W62) produced today's largest flare, a C4/Sf at 2044Z. This group continues to show slow growth and has a simple beta magnetic configuration. Region 9313 (S06E01) continues to show some magnetic complexity but appears to be decaying slowly. Three new sunspot groups were assigned today: Region 9322 (S23E00), Region 9323 (S29E03) and Region 9324 (N10E42). All of these groups were small, simple, bipolar regions.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days. Regions 9313 and 9311 are the most likely sources for enhanced solar activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 22-2100Z a 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the past 24 hours. The field was initially quiet. However, an interplanetary shock was observed at the ACE spacecraft at 1008Z and was followed by a sudden impulse at Earth at 1047Z. Solar wind behind the shock showed sheath-like characteristics, with Bz oscillating from negative to positive. Bz did appear to be trending toward more strongly negative values near forecast issue time (about -10 nT). The geomagnetic field responded by becoming unsettled to active. The greater than 10 MeV protons remain enhanced (at about 2 pfu) but did not increase with the shock passage.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active during the next 12 to 24 hours, with a chance for isolated storm periods as the current disturbance continues. A decrease to unsettled to slightly active levels is expected for the second and third days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 24 Jan a 26 Jan
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       23 Jan 167
  Previsto   24 Jan-26 Jan  165/165/160
  Media de 90 Días        23 Jan 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 22 Jan  008/010
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 23 Jan  018/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan  025/020-012/015-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 24 Jan a 26 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%20%
Tormenta Menor25%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%25%
Tormenta Menor20%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa25%10%05%

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