Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 enero 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 022 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jan 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/Sf flare
at 21/2312Z from region 9311 (N05W48). This group has shown slow
growth during the past 24 hours and produced a few additional
subflares. Region 9313 (S07E15) continues to be the largest region
on the disk and shows some magnetic complexity, but could only
muster one C-class subflare during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate during the next three days. Regions 9313 and 9311 appear
to have the best potential for producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled during the past 24
hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons was observed at
geostationary orbit, but peak fluxes (around 3 pfu) remained below
event level. These particles are likely to have been accelerated by
the fast CME of 20 January, which was associated with an M7 x-ray
flare.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly active over the next two days, with a fair
chance for some isolated storm periods. The increase is anticipated
with the arrival of enhanced solar wind from the two CME events of
20 January. In addition, currently enhanced levels of medium energy
protons observed by ACE indicate the imminent arrival of an
interplanetary shock sometime during the next 12 hours. A decrease
to unsettled to slightly active is expected to occur on the third
day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jan a 25 Jan
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Jan 162 Previsto 23 Jan-25 Jan 165/165/165 Media de 90 Días 22 Jan 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jan 012/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Jan 012/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 025/025-025/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jan a 25 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 45% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 15% |
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