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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 22 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 022 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Jan 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate due to an M1/Sf flare at 21/2312Z from region 9311 (N05W48). This group has shown slow growth during the past 24 hours and produced a few additional subflares. Region 9313 (S07E15) continues to be the largest region on the disk and shows some magnetic complexity, but could only muster one C-class subflare during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate during the next three days. Regions 9313 and 9311 appear to have the best potential for producing an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled during the past 24 hours. An enhancement of greater than 10 MeV protons was observed at geostationary orbit, but peak fluxes (around 3 pfu) remained below event level. These particles are likely to have been accelerated by the fast CME of 20 January, which was associated with an M7 x-ray flare.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active over the next two days, with a fair chance for some isolated storm periods. The increase is anticipated with the arrival of enhanced solar wind from the two CME events of 20 January. In addition, currently enhanced levels of medium energy protons observed by ACE indicate the imminent arrival of an interplanetary shock sometime during the next 12 hours. A decrease to unsettled to slightly active is expected to occur on the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Jan a 25 Jan
Clase M45%45%45%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       22 Jan 162
  Previsto   23 Jan-25 Jan  165/165/165
  Media de 90 Días        22 Jan 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 21 Jan  012/018
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 22 Jan  012/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan  025/025-025/025-012/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Jan a 25 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo45%45%25%
Tormenta Menor30%30%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%15%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor35%35%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa20%20%15%

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