Viendo archivo de viernes, 13 octubre 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 13 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 287 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Oct 2000 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z

Solar activity dropped from moderate to low levels. The M1 flare in progress at the end of last period had an associated subfaint flare from Region 9182 (N04W78) at 12/2117 UTC. Region 9195 (N14W82) had a C6/2n flare at 13/0620 UTC. No radio sweeps or halos were observed in association with these events. Numerous C-class subfaint flares were observed from these regions through the remainder of the day, as well as a C2/Sf from Region 9196 (S33W65) at 13/0414 UTC. Other regions were stable and exhibited no notable activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels, with an isolated chance of moderate activity from regions 9182, 9195, or returning old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to major storm levels. A shock passage in association with CME activity seen on October 9 was observed at ACE at 12/2130 UTC. Minor storming and isolated major storming at high latitudes was observed during 13/00-06 UTC. Activity thereafter was at unsettled to active levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with an increasing chance of isolated minor storming during days two and three, with the expected onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Oct a 16 Oct
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       13 Oct 168
  Previsto   14 Oct-16 Oct  180/195/205
  Media de 90 Días        13 Oct 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 12 Oct  005/008
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 13 Oct  023/027
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Oct a 16 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%35%35%
Tormenta Menor15%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

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