Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 287 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Oct 2000 :::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity dropped from moderate to low levels.
The M1 flare in progress at the end of last period had an associated
subfaint flare from Region 9182 (N04W78) at 12/2117 UTC. Region
9195 (N14W82) had a C6/2n flare at 13/0620 UTC. No radio sweeps or
halos were observed in association with these events. Numerous
C-class subfaint flares were observed from these regions through the
remainder of the day, as well as a C2/Sf from Region 9196 (S33W65)
at 13/0414 UTC. Other regions were stable and exhibited no
notable activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels, with an isolated chance of moderate activity from
regions 9182, 9195, or returning old Region 9169 (N12, L = 080).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to major storm levels. A shock
passage in association with CME activity seen on October 9 was
observed at ACE at 12/2130 UTC. Minor storming and isolated major
storming at high latitudes was observed during 13/00-06 UTC.
Activity thereafter was at unsettled to active levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled to active, with an increasing
chance of isolated minor storming during days two and three, with
the expected onset of high speed stream effects from a favorably
positioned coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Oct 168 Previsto 14 Oct-16 Oct 180/195/205 Media de 90 Días 13 Oct 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Oct 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Oct 023/027 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct 012/012-015/012-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Oct a 16 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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