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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Sep 17 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 261 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 SEP 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY WAS A C5/1F AT 17/0643 UTC IN REGION 9167 (N11E69). THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED A NUMBER OF OTHER LESS SIGNIFICANT SUBFLARES. 9167 IS STILL CLOSE TO THE EAST LIMB BUT APPEARS TO BE A GROWING D-TYPE GROUP. REGION 9165 (N14W26) CONTINUES TO DECAY IN SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. HOWEVER, IT MANAGED TO PRODUCE SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C3/SF AT 17/0042 UTC. REGION 9166 (S14E37) ALSO PRODUCE A FEW C-CLASS FLARES AND CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COMPLEXITY AS IT ROTATES FURTHER ONTO THE DISK. NEW REGION 9168 (N09E06) EMERGED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. ADDITIONAL C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN REGIONS 9165, 9166, AND 9167. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE REGIONS AS WELL. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO STORM LEVELS. THE FIELD APPEARED TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM FOR MOST OF THE DAY. ACE NEAR-REAL-TIME DATA SUGGESTS THE ARRIVAL OF CME MATERIAL AT L1 AT ABOUT 17/1500 UTC. THIS CME MAY HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN REGION 9165 ON SEP 15.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, REACHING STORM LEVELS BY SEP 19. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM A CME RELATED TO THE M5/2B FLARE IN REGION 9165 EARLY ON SEP 16. A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM MAY MAINTAIN ACTIVITY LEVELS FOR A FEW DAYS AFTER THESE CMES PASS THE EARTH.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 SEP a 20 SEP
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       17 SEP 182
  Previsto   18 SEP-20 SEP  185/190/190
  Media de 90 Días        17 SEP 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 SEP  014/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 SEP  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 SEP-20 SEP  020/020-040/040-030/040
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 SEP a 20 SEP
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo60%50%50%
Tormenta Menor15%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%25%25%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo75%25%25%
Tormenta Menor15%30%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%35%35%

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