Viendo archivo de miércoles, 10 mayo 2000

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 10 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 131 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE EVENT OF THE PERIOD BEGAN WITH THE ERUPTION OF A 5 DEGREE FILAMENT FROM N14E16. IT WAS SOON FOLLOWED BY A LONG-DURATION 2N/C8 FLARE FROM REGION 8990 (N14E20) AT 10/1941Z AS WELL AS TYPE II (680 KM/S) AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. NEW REGION 8993 (S23W06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY, CORRECTING AN EARLIER ERROR. THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS IT WAS INCORRECTLY REFERRED TO AS REGION 8986, WHICH HAD ACTUALLY DISSIPATED. REGION 8994 (N11W01) WAS ALSO NUMBERED. TODAY'S PENTICTON 10CM FLUX VALUE WAS LIKELY FLARE ENHANCED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8989 (N16W01), 8990 (N14E20), AND 8991 (N15E46) ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE ONSET OF A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED LATE 11 MAY TO EARLY 12 MAY DUE TO A FILAMENT ERUPTION AND PARTIAL HALO CME OBSERVED ON 8 MAY. ALTHOUGH, AT THIS POINT, THERE IS NO INDICATION OF AN APPROACHING SHOCK IN THE ACE DATA. EFFECTS OF A RECURRENT CORONAL HOLE WILL EXTEND THE ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH 13 MAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 MAY a 13 MAY
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       10 MAY 179
  Previsto   11 MAY-13 MAY  165/170/175
  Media de 90 Días        10 MAY 186
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAY  007/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAY  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAY-13 MAY  015/015-030/025-020/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 MAY a 13 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor15%30%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%30%
Tormenta Menor25%40%35%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%10%05%

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