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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 May 08 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 129 Publicado el 2200Z a las 08 MAY 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 07-2100Z hasta 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. REGION 8990 (N13E49) BEGAN TO EMERGE AT A MODERATE PACE DURING THE PERIOD AND PRODUCED SEVERAL LOW TO MID LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. A NEW REGION ROTATED OVER THE EAST LIMB AND WAS NUMBERED AS REGION 8991 (N16E70). OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS, THERE WERE SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT FILAMENT ERUPTIONS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SUN. THESE FILAMENTS WERE LARGE AND DENSE. A PARTIAL HALO WAS OBSERVED BY THE LASCO CORONAGRAPH SPANNING FROM SE60-NW10 AT AROUND 08/0700Z. ANOTHER MASS EJECTION, THAT MAY ALSO BE A PARTIAL HALO EVENT, BECAME VISIBLE AROUND 08/1800Z IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY LOW. CONTINUED GROWTH IN REGION 8990 SHOULD INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF C-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN M-CLASS EVENT FROM EITHER REGION 8990 OR 8991. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE QUIET TO SLIGHTLY UNSETTLED FOR 09-10 MAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF 11 MAY. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE ON 11 MAY FROM THE ERUPTIONS MENTIONED ABOVE. STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12-13 MAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 09 MAY a 11 MAY
Clase M15%15%15%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       08 MAY 137
  Previsto   09 MAY-11 MAY  142/145/147
  Media de 90 Días        08 MAY 187
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 MAY  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 MAY  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 MAY-11 MAY  005/008-005/008-018/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 09 MAY a 11 MAY
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%10%30%
Tormenta Menor05%05%30%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%15%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo10%10%30%
Tormenta Menor05%05%40%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%02%20%

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