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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 027 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 JAN 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. REGION 8844 (N05W60) IS THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS QUIET AND APPEARED TO BE IN DECLINE. NEW REGION 8848 (S09E66) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A SMALL, C-TYPE GROUP, AND NEW REGION 8846 (N37E39) EMERGED AS A SMALL, HIGH LATITUDE A-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL A SUDDEN IMPULSE WAS OBSERVED AT 1455 UT. SINCE THEN CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A SHOCK WAS SEEN AT ACE AT 1350Z AND WAS FOLLOWED BY A HIGH DENSITY FLOW WITH STRONGLY FLUCTUATING MAGNETIC FIELDS. SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE SHOCK WAS A REVERSAL OF THE SPIRAL ANGLE (PHI) FROM TOWARDS TO AWAY. AFTER 1830Z THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND TEMPERATURE BEGAN TO RISE CONSIDERABLY AS DENSITY BEGAN TO FALL. THESE SIGNATURES ARE CONSISTENT WITH A STRONG, CO-ROTATING INTERACTION REGION WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH PERIODS OF MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST PART OF DAY ONE. CONDITIONS WILL DECLINE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 JAN a 30 JAN
Clase M10%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 JAN 132
  Previsto   28 JAN-30 JAN  130/130/125
  Media de 90 Días        27 JAN   175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JAN  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JAN  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JAN-30 JAN  020/025-020/025-015/018
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 JAN a 30 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo50%50%40%
Tormenta Menor25%20%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo40%40%40%
Tormenta Menor30%25%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%05%

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