Viendo archivo del viernes, 21 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 021 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 21/0648UT. EIT IMAGERY FROM THE SOHO
SPACECRAFT SUGGESTS REGION 8833 (N18W24) AS THE SOURCE OF THIS
EVENT. GROWTH CONTINUES IN REGION 8837 (S07W69), HOWEVER, ITS FLARE
PRODUCTION HAS BEEN LOW. A LARGE EQUATORIAL CORONAL HOLE, WHICH
HAS BEEN VISIBLE DURING EACH SOLAR ROTATION FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS,
IS AGAIN ROTATING OVER THE EAST LIMB.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A CONSEQUENCE OF THE M-FLARE EVENTS OBSERVED ON 18 JANUARY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 JAN a 24 JAN
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 JAN 159 Previsto 22 JAN-24 JAN 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 21 JAN 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JAN 013/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JAN 003/005 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JAN-24 JAN 025/035-015/012-008/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 JAN a 24 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 02% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 25% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 06% | 01% | 01% |
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