Viendo archivo del jueves, 20 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 020 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OF THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS
ON THE DISK, REGION 8837 (S08W55) HAS SHOWN THE MOST DEVELOPMENT,
DOUBLING IN AREA IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. REGION 8824 (S13W72)
CONTINUES TO DECLINE AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8839
(N11E06) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. A MAJOR SEGMENT OF THE POLAR CROWN
FILAMENT NEAR N60E10 DISAPPEARED AFTER 0800UT ON 19 JANUARY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGION 8837 AS
IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. A K OF 4 WAS
OBSERVED IN BOULDER AT 1200UT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE THRU 22 JAN. SOLAR WIND DATA
FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT CONTINUE TO SHOW EVIDENCE OF AN
INTERPLANETARY SHOCK. ON 23 JAN THE FIELD SHOULD RETURN TO QUIET
AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 JAN a 23 JAN
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 JAN 171 Previsto 21 JAN-23 JAN 170/165/160 Media de 90 Días 20 JAN 178
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 JAN 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 JAN 012/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 JAN-23 JAN 015/012-025/035-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 JAN a 23 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 02% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 06% | 01% |
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