Viendo archivo del martes, 18 enero 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Jan 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 018 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 JAN 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8831 (S18E01)
PRODUCED A LONG DURATION M3/1N X-RAY EVENT AT 18/1727Z WITH AN
ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AND AN ESTIMATED SPEED OF 400 KM/S. REGION
8824 PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 18/1008Z. REGION 8837 (S08W27) RAPIDLY
DEVELOPED DURING THE PERIOD AND IS CURRENTLY A DSO BETA SUNSPOT
GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 9 SPOTS. NEW REGIONS 8837 (S08W27) AND
8838 (N12E67) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8824 AND 8831 HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES FROM 18/1500 -
1800Z..
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD THEN BECOME
QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SOLAR PROTON EVENT
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DUE TO THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE M3 X-RAY
EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 JAN a 21 JAN
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 JAN 195 Previsto 19 JAN-21 JAN 190/185/180 Media de 90 Días 18 JAN 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JAN 004/003 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JAN 005/003 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JAN-21 JAN 005/005-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 JAN a 21 JAN
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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