Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 octubre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 20 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 OCT 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8731 (N14W55)
PRODUCED AN M1/1F FLARE AT 20/0622Z ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II SWEEP.
THIS REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DECAY AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST
LIMB. REGION 8732 (N22W64) HAS STABILIZED SINCE PRODUCING A C8/SF
LATE LAST PERIOD AND A C7/1F AT 19/2204Z. NEW REGIONS 8738 (N16E28)
AND 8739 (S13E81) WERE NUMBERED TODAY:
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 8731 AND 8732 ARE IN DECAY BUT POSSESS
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR DAYS ONE AND TWO. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RETURN OF A GEOEFFECTIVE CORONAL
HOLE BY DAY THREE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 OCT a 23 OCT
| Clase M | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 20 OCT 159 Previsto 21 OCT-23 OCT 165/160/150 Media de 90 Días 20 OCT 159
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 OCT 005/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 OCT 006/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 OCT-23 OCT 010/010-010/012-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 OCT a 23 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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