Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 octubre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 287 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 OCT 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8731 (N29E24) PRODUCED
AN X1/1N FLARE AT 0900Z. THE EVENT WAS RATHER IMPULSIVE BUT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEPS. REGION 8731 HAS
SHOWN REMARKABLE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND IS
CURRENTLY THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. THERE APPEARS TO BE A
DELTA SPOT FORMING IN THE CENTER OF THE REGION, JUST IN FRONT OF THE
DOMINANT TRAILER. REGION 8732 (N20E16) HAS ALSO SHOWN GROWTH BUT WAS
QUIET. REGION 8728 (N22E00) APPEARS TO HAVE SIMPLIFIED SOMEWHAT OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. OTHER ACTIVITY TODAY CONSISTED OF A FEW C-CLASS
SUBFLARES. A HIGH LATITUDE POLAR CROWN FILAMENT NEAR N70W50
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/1524Z AND 14/1529Z.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MOSTLY MODERATE, WITH THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8731.IF
THE CURRENT TREND IN 8731 CONTINUES THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN
ADDITIONAL MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION SOMETIME DURING THE NEXT
THREE DAYS. REGIONS 8732 AND 8728 MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
PRODUCTION OF MODERATE LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY ACTIVE. THERE WAS A PERIOD OF MINOR
STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDE FROM 1500-1800Z. SOLAR WIND
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A HIGH SPEED STREAM
WHICH IS ORIGINATING FROM A WELL-POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE TOMORROW AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE CONTINUES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECLINE ON THE 2ND DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE SOME LINGERING EFFECTS EARLY IN THE DAY. MOSTLY UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 OCT a 17 OCT
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 OCT 200 Previsto 15 OCT-17 OCT 200/200/200 Media de 90 Días 14 OCT 156
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 OCT 021/026 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 OCT 020/022 PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 OCT-17 OCT 020/025-010/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 OCT a 17 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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