Viendo archivo del domingo, 10 octubre 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Oct 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 283 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 OCT 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THREE SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. TWO HAD NO OPTICAL CORRELATION AND ONE
C2/SF AT 10/1356Z FROM REGION 8728 (N22E50). OF THE THIRTEEN SPOTTED
REGIONS ON THE SOLAR DISK AT THIS TIME, NONE ARE VERY DYNAMIC IN
MAGNETIC STRUCTURE. A REGION OF INTEREST IS REGION 8729 (N12E58).
THIS REGION MAY CONSIST OF TWO OR MORE REGIONS ONCE THE AREA ROTATES
FURTHER ONTO THE DISK FOR A BETTER ANALYSIS.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEVERAL OF THE EXISTING REGIONS HAVE C-CLASS
FLARE POTENTIAL WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH-SPEED
CORONAL HOLE WIND STREAM.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS CONTINUE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 OCT a 13 OCT
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 OCT 161 Previsto 11 OCT-13 OCT 165/168/170 Media de 90 Días 10 OCT 154
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 OCT 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 OCT 025/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 OCT-13 OCT 020/030-020/030-015/035
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 OCT a 13 OCT
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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