Viendo archivo del miércoles, 17 marzo 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Mar 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 076 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 MAR 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8485 (N24W52) CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN M6/2N AT
16/2144Z. TWO OTHER M-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED - AN M3/1F AT
17/0956Z, AND AN M1/SN AT 17/1449Z. THIS ACTIVE F-TYPE GROUP
EXHIBITED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AS IT
APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. ERUPTIVE PROMINENCES WERE OBSERVED IN
PROGRESS ON THE NW LIMB AT 17/0119Z AND NE LIMB AT 17/0717Z. CORONAL
MASS EJECTIONS OCCURRED WITH BOTH ERUPTIONS. NEW REGION 8490
(S20E66) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8485 IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARES
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH AN ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIOD BETWEEN 17/1500 - 17/1800Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 MAR a 20 MAR
| Clase M | 50% | 45% | 25% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 MAR 155 Previsto 18 MAR-20 MAR 150/145/135 Media de 90 Días 17 MAR 142
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR 003/004 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR 005/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR 012/012-012/010-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 MAR a 20 MAR
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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