Viendo archivo del lunes, 22 febrero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 053 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 FEB 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z SOAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C3 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED AT
22/1301UT AND A LONG DURATION (1.5 HOURS) C1 EVENT OCCURRED AT
22/2210UT. BOTH WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE
MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE. A NEW REGION, 8470 (S23E72), EMERGED AS A 5
SPOT BXO BETA GROUP.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET WITH A FEW ISOLATED UNSETTLED
PERIODS. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE ABOVE THRESHOLD
LEVELS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
HIGH SPEED STREAM FROM A WELL POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE MAY AFFECT THE
NEAR EARTH ENVIRONS DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
QUIET TO UNSETTLED AFTER THAT.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 FEB a 25 FEB
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 FEB 130 Previsto 23 FEB-25 FEB 125/120/118 Media de 90 Días 22 FEB 146
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB 003/005 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB 007/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB 015/017-010/008-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 FEB a 25 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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