Viendo archivo del martes, 16 febrero 1999
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1999 Feb 16 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 047 Publicado el 2200Z a las 16 FEB 1999IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 15-2100Z hasta 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO M-CLASS FLARES IN
REGIONS 8462 (N18W20) AND 8458 (S22W23). THE FLARE IN 8458 WAS THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT, BEING A LONG-DURATION M3/SF AT 16/0312UT WHICH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH TYPE II/IV SWEEPS AND A 560 SFU TENFLARE. THESE TWO
REGIONS ALSO PRODUCED A NUMBER OF C-CLASS SUBFLARES. NEW REGIONS
8466 (S23E59) AND 8467 (N16E65) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8457, 8458,
8462, AND 8464. REGIONS 8457, 8458, AND 8462 REMAIN THE MOST
PROBABLE AREAS FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 15-2100Z a 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. REAL-TIME SOLAR WIND DATA SUGGESTS
THAT WE ARE NO LONGER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH-SPEED STREAM
MENTIONED YESTERDAY.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 17 FEB a 19 FEB
| Clase M | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 16 FEB 192 Previsto 17 FEB-19 FEB 190/185/180 Media de 90 Días 16 FEB 145
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB 013/013 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB 005/006 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB 005/006-005/008-005/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 17 FEB a 19 FEB
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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