Viewing archive of miércoles, 30 diciembre 1998

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Dec 30 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 364 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 DEC 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8421 (N26W14) PRODUCED ALL OF TODAY'S FLARES, INCLUDING THE ONLY M-CLASS EVENT: AN M1/SF AT 0546Z. THE GROUP SHOWED SLOW GROWTH TODAY, PRIMARILY BY MEANS OF CONSOLIDATION OF THE LEADER PART OF THE GROUP INTO A SINGLE, LARGE PENUMBRAL REGION. THE REGION PRODUCED FREQUENT SUBFLARES THROUGHOUT THE DAY, 7 OF WHICH WERE LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS EVENTS. IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE STORAGE OF NON-POTENTIAL MAGNETIC ENERGY IN THE REGION IS PROMPTLY DISSIPATED BY THESE FREQUENT SMALL EVENTS. REGION 8419 (N26W65) DECREASED SLOWLY TODAY AND WAS VERY STABLE. NEW REGION 8425 (S26E50) WAS ASSIGNED TODAY AND IS A SIMPLE, SMALL, BIPOLAR SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 8421 IS EXPECTED TO BE THE SOURCE FOR ANY M-CLASS ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED MAJOR FLARE EVENT FROM THIS REGION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE FIRST THREE HOURS OF THE REPORTING PERIOD BEGAN WITH MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH A FEW HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS REPORTING ACTIVE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS CALMED SLIGHTLY BETWEEN 0000-0700Z WITH ACTIVITY ON THE BORDERLINE BETWEEN QUIET AND UNSETTLED. SINCE 0700Z, HOWEVER, THE FIELD HAS BEEN VERY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. AN EXAMINATION OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD COMPONENT BZ SHOWED A NORTHWARD TURNING OF THE FIELD TO ABOUT +5 NT AT 0500Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TOMORROW IN RESPONSE TO EFFECTS FROM A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE SECOND DAY, BUT QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 31 DEC a 02 JAN
Clase M65%65%65%
Clase X15%15%15%
Protón15%20%20%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       30 DEC 179
  Previsto   31 DEC-02 JAN  172/165/160
  Media de 90 Días        30 DEC 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 DEC  010/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 DEC  004/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 DEC-02 JAN  010/010-007/010-005/007
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 31 DEC a 02 JAN
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%10%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo15%15%10%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%

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