Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 noviembre 1998
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Nov 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 319 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 NOV 1998IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C1
X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8389 (S19W44).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GT 100 MEV PROTON
EVENT ENDED AT 14/1645Z WITH A MAXIMUM OF 6.1 PFU OBSERVED AT
14/0950Z. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT REMAINS IN PROGRESS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO A RECURRENT PATTERN OF A
NORTHERN POLAR CORONAL HOLE.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 NOV a 18 NOV
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 NOV 126 Previsto 16 NOV-18 NOV 120/115/115 Media de 90 Días 15 NOV 132
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 NOV 021/038 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 NOV 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 NOV-18 NOV 010/010-010/012-015/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 NOV a 18 NOV
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
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