Viendo archivo de sábado, 21 marzo 1998

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1998 Mar 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

COR **********CORRECTED COPY********** SDF Número 080 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 MAR 1998

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W82) PRODUCED A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 21/1826Z. TWO UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED AS WELL, A C1 AT 21/0252Z AND A C1 AT 21/0531Z. REGION 8179 IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8180 (S29W71), SPOTLESS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, SHOWED A RE-EMERGED, REVERSE POLARITY BXO SPOT GROUP TODAY. REGION 8185 (S24E71) CONTINUED TO GROW AS IT APPEARED OVER THE EAST LIMB. INDICATIONS ARE THERE ARE MORE SPOTS TO FOLLOW IN THIS REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE SPOTS GROUPS, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE DISK, WERE QUIET AND RELATIVELY STABLE.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 8179 STILL HAS GOOD C-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL, A CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE. REGION 8185 HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS ACTIVITY, A SMALL CHANCE OF M-CLASS FLARING, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING BEGAN JUST AFTER 21/0900Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE THE RESULT OF A CME INDICATED BY THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A 23 DEGREE FILAMENT IN THE SE QUADRANT, DETECTED AT 16/1147Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS, THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 MAR a 24 MAR
Clase M45%25%25%
Clase X10%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 MAR 126
  Previsto   22 MAR-24 MAR  124/122/120
  Media de 90 Días        21 MAR 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAR  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAR  028/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAR-24 MAR  015/018-010/012-015/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 MAR a 24 MAR
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%15%20%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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