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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 1997 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 AUG 1997

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8071 (N26W22) PRODUCED A C1/SF FLARE AT 0132Z. THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY FLARES SINCE THIS EVENT AND THE REGIONS ON THE DISK APPEAR TO BE STABLE. STACKED REGIONS 8073 (N14E36) AND 8074 (N26E38) CURRENTLY SHARE A NEUTRAL LINE BETWEEN 8073'S TRAILER AND 8074'S LEADER, BUT THE FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK, AND THIS AREA DOES NOT CURRENTLY POSE A SIGNIFICANT FLARE THREAT.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AN INITALLY UNSETTLED FIELD BECAME INCREASINGLY DISTURBED BETWEEN 0400-0900Z: MIDDLE LATITUDES WERE MOSTLY ACTIVE AND HIGH LATITUDES SHOWED A RANGE OF LEVELS FROM ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM. SINCE 0900Z, CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY QUIET WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OCCASIONAL UNSETTLED PERIODS.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND UNSETTLED TO QUIET FOR THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME ACTIVE LEVEL DISTURBANCES DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 AUG a 17 AUG
Clase M05%05%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       14 AUG 080
  Previsto   15 AUG-17 AUG  080/078/076
  Media de 90 Días        14 AUG 073
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG  017/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  010/010-010/005-010/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 AUG a 17 AUG
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo25%25%25%
Tormenta Menor10%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

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